The IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook reveals the impact of Trump’s tariffs on global growth, projecting a baseline of 2.8% for 2025, down 0.5% from January estimates.
The US faces the steepest cut, with growth revised to 1.8% (down 0.9%), while China’s forecast drops to 4% (down 0.6%).
India remains resilient at 6.2%, despite a 0.3% reduction due to trade tensions.
Mexico sees the worst impact, with a projected 0.3% contraction.
The IMF warns of a 37% US recession risk and notes that uncertainty from escalating tariffs could further dampen global economic stability.
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